Exploring near-optimal energy systems with stakeholders: A novel approach for participatory modeling
Source: PubMed Central Open Access, NCBI / U.S. National Library of Medicine
Summary Including local populations in energy transition planning can increase its legitimacy, socio-political feasibility, and, in turn, climate mitigation efficacy. Comprehensive stakeholder involvement in participatory modeling facilitates learning; however, the choice of options and scenarios in the model can be opaque to participants. Here, we present a framework in which stakeholders engage with near-optimal modeling results holistically and showcase our methodology in a case study of the remote Arctic settlement of Longyearbyen, Svalbard. Participants choose across a continuum of modeling-based energy system designs in an interactive interface through which they select essentially any feasible combination of system components and immediately see the implications of their choice. With Longyearbyen already affected by climate change, stakeholders consistently deviate from the cost optimum and instead balance different aspects like emissions, costs, and system vulnerability. When confronted with difficult trade-offs, participants feel better informed through our tool and successfully navigate through complex and intertwined decision-making. abs0010 Graphical abstract http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink float portrait ga1.jpg undfig1 anchor portrait graphical abs0015 Highlights • Interacting with near-optimal system designs illustrate trade-offs to stakeholders u0010 • On Svalbard, most participants balance three or more impacts and not only costs u0015 • Low emissions, system vu
Abstract
Summary Including local populations in energy transition planning can increase its legitimacy, socio-political feasibility, and, in turn, climate mitigation efficacy. Comprehensive stakeholder involvement in participatory modeling facilitates learning; however, the choice of options and scenarios in the model can be opaque to participants. Here, we present a framework in which stakeholders engage with near-optimal modeling results holistically and showcase our methodology in a case study of the remote Arctic settlement of Longyearbyen, Svalbard. Participants choose across a continuum of modeling-based energy system designs in an interactive interface through which they select essentially any feasible combination of system components and immediately see the implications of their choice. With Longyearbyen already affected by climate change, stakeholders consistently deviate from the cost optimum and instead balance different aspects like emissions, costs, and system vulnerability. When confronted with difficult trade-offs, participants feel better informed through our tool and successfully navigate through complex and intertwined decision-making. abs0010 Graphical abstract http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink float portrait ga1.jpg undfig1 anchor portrait graphical abs0015 Highlights • Interacting with near-optimal system designs illustrate trade-offs to stakeholders u0010 • On Svalbard, most participants balance three or more impacts and not only costs u0015 • Low emissions, system vulnerability, and electricity price are important in the Arctic u0020 • New participatory method helps move energy system planning beyond cost optimality u0025 simple ulist0010 author-highlights abs0020 Energy systems; Energy management; Energy Modelling teaser abs0025